Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Demarcus Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Demarcus Robinson has been a more important option in his team's passing attack this season (16.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.1%).
Demarcus Robinson has accrued many more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Demarcus Robinson's receiving effectiveness has declined this year, notching a measly 6.81 yards-per-target compared to a 8.46 mark last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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