Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Demarcus Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+104/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Demarcus Robinson to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.3% in games he has played).
Demarcus Robinson has posted significantly more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Demarcus Robinson has accrued significantly more receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).
Demarcus Robinson's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 66.4% to 72.8%.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

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