Demarcus Robinson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+399/-849).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +415 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +399.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Demarcus Robinson has totaled many more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
Demarcus Robinson's 34.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 15.2.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 3rd-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.25 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Demarcus Robinson grades out in the 25th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.09 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60%) to WRs this year (60.0%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.