Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 4.1 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.
The 49ers are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Deebo Samuel has earned 15.3% of carries this year (99th percentile).

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 92 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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