Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accumulate 3.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.
The 49ers are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Deebo Samuel has garnered 13.0% of carries this year (99th percentile).

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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