Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers rank as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 41.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 2.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.
The 49ers are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Deebo Samuel has earned 13.0% of rush attempts this year (99th percentile).
Deebo Samuel has averaged 23.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among WRs and TEs (100th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.