Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to notch 3.2 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.
The 49ers are willing to include receivers in their run game, and Deebo Samuel has garnered 13.7% of rush attempts this year (99th percentile).
Deebo Samuel has averaged 25.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among WRs and TEs (100th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 6th-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.

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