Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-121).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 2.2 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.
Deebo Samuel has averaged 23.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among wide receivers and tight ends (100th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 6.01 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (7.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.2% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.