Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.8%) versus WRs since the start of last season (68.8%).
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's LB corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 11.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are projected by the predictive model to call only 60.2 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
When it comes to pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season.

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