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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.

The Detroit Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year.

In this week's game, Deebo Samuel is predicted by the model to land in the 79th percentile among wideouts with 7.4 targets.

Deebo Samuel has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which ranks him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 57.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.

The San Francisco O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Deebo Samuel's 62.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a substantial decrease in his receiving prowess over last year's 69.3% rate.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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