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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-152).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel to garner 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel has been among the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The projections expect Deebo Samuel to be a less important option in his offense's passing game this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (31.3% in games he has played).

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