Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 8.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 23.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been among the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 63.4% to 72.8%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.