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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.

Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to accumulate 7.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

With a remarkable 4.1 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel ranks among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 63.4% to 71.4%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.

Deebo Samuel has run fewer routes this season (75.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (86.8%).

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the worst in the league this year.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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