Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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