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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel has run a route on 89.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to accrue 7.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Deebo Samuel rates as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an excellent 4.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Deebo Samuel's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 63.4% to 71.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.5 plays per game.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the 49ers profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.

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