Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (43.0 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Deebo Samuel to notch 6.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to WRs.
With an exceptional 20.7% Target% (77th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel stands as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
Deebo Samuel's 73.3% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a noteable improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 63.4% rate.
The Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.

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