Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
Deebo Samuel has run a route on 90.2% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
In this game, Deebo Samuel is expected by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
Deebo Samuel's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 63.4% to 67.9%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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