Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-144).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accumulate 6.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (60.1%) versus WRs since the start of last season (60.1%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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