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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+138/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -174.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 8.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Deebo Samuel has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
  • Deebo Samuel's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 57.5%.

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