Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+138/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 8.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
Deebo Samuel's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 57.5%.

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