Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 4.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Deebo Samuel's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 59.3.
Deebo Samuel's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.9% to 63.4%.

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