Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has been among the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 4.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Deebo Samuel's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.
Deebo Samuel's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.9% to 63.4%.