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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Deebo Samuel has been among the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 4.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
  • Deebo Samuel's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.
  • Deebo Samuel's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.9% to 63.4%.

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