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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+136/-181).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -181.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Deebo Samuel has been among the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 4.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel's 47.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 58.0.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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