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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 4.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.6%) versus wide receivers this year (68.6%).
  • The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
  • Deebo Samuel's 49.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 58.0.

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