Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 4.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.6%) versus wide receivers this year (68.6%).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Deebo Samuel's 49.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 58.0.