Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to notch 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
After totaling 32.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel has gotten better this year, currently boasting 47.0 per game.
Deebo Samuel's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 44.9.
With a terrific 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel has been among the leading WRs in the league in the NFL.
Deebo Samuel's pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this season, totaling 9.28 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.70 rate last season.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 31.28 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.5 per game) this year.

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