Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
The model projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 21.9% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel's 71.6% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a material improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 63.4% rate.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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