Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a terrific 62.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 9.24 yards-per-target vs a 10.42 rate last year.

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