Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this year, accumulating 9.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 7.67 figure last year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Deebo Samuel has compiled far fewer air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 59.3.

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