Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 55.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Deebo Samuel has compiled far fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

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