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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-184).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +203 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 84th percentile for wideouts.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Deebo Samuel grades out in the 83rd percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.33 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be a less important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.5% in games he has played).

Deebo Samuel has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).

Deebo Samuel's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 59.6%.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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