Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+195/-289).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +219 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Deebo Samuel's 55.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel ranks in the 86th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.40 per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 6th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.20 per game this year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (25.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (41.7% in games he has played).
Deebo Samuel has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

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