Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-342).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +227 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +221.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (20.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.4% in games he has played).
Deebo Samuel has notched a colossal 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel's 58.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 89th percentile for WRs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.61 per game since the start of last season.