Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-450).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.9% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Deebo Samuel has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel's 46.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.
Deebo Samuel's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.9% to 60.9%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63%) versus WRs this year (63.0%).