Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+261/-433).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -363 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -433.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.5% in games he has played).
Deebo Samuel has notched far fewer air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 55.7.