Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-353).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -343 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -353.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.6%) versus wide receivers this year (68.6%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 1.12 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be a less important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (22.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
Deebo Samuel has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).