DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+122/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
While DeAndre Hopkins has received 11.4% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Tennessee's passing offense in this week's game at 19.0%.
DeAndre Hopkins ranks as one of the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
DeAndre Hopkins's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 56.6% to 78.6%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans since the start of last season (a mere 54.3 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.
The Tennessee offensive line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.