DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-185/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
In this week's game, DeAndre Hopkins is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.
DeAndre Hopkins's 70.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for wideouts.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
DeAndre Hopkins's 4.6 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a significant regression in his receiving skills over last season's 6.8 mark.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62%) vs. wideouts this year (62.0%).

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