DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 9.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins's 84.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 74.1.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Titans.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
The the Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins's play as a receiver has declined this year, notching a measly 5.3 adjusted receptions compared to 6.8 last year.

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