DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to garner 7.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
DeAndre Hopkins has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 29.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
DeAndre Hopkins has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.