DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
DeAndre Hopkins slots into the 94th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 70.7 mark this year.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Titans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 50.2% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (a mere 52.7 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.7 per game) this year.

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