DeAndre Hopkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to skew 1.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to total 8.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins's 70.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in football: 95th percentile for wide receivers.
The Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71%) versus WRs this year (71.0%).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Titans grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
DeAndre Hopkins's 4.6 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a remarkable regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 6.8 rate.