DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (64.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 56.6% to 69.5%.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
At the moment, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Raiders, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.
DeAndre Hopkins's 51.8% Route% this year reflects a noteable decline in his passing game volume over last year's 86.5% rate.
DeAndre Hopkins has compiled far fewer air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (119.0 per game).

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