DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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DeAndre Hopkins

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Titans are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
The projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game in this contest (21.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).
DeAndre Hopkins's 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a noteable progression in his receiving talent over last year's 56.6% rate.

Favors Under

With a 56.6% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Tennessee Titans.
The projections expect the Titans to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 54.0 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
After totaling 119.0 air yards per game last year, DeAndre Hopkins has seen a big decrease this year, now boasting 46.0 per game.

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