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DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

DeAndre Hopkins has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (55.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.8%).

DeAndre Hopkins has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (116.0 per game).

DeAndre Hopkins's 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a material regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 61.0 rate.

DeAndre Hopkins ranks as one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 13th percentile.

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