DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
In this contest, DeAndre Hopkins is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.2 targets.
This year, the anemic Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
DeAndre Hopkins's 80.1% Route Participation% this season illustrates a an impressive decline in his air attack volume over last season's 91.9% figure.
After averaging 111.0 air yards per game last season, DeAndre Hopkins has been a disappointment this season, now boasting 99.0 per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.