DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
In this week's game, DeAndre Hopkins is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets.
DeAndre Hopkins has compiled a massive 112.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
DeAndre Hopkins slots into the 93rd percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a massive 69.1 figure this year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 53.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins's 60.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a substantial drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 82.0 mark.