DeAndre Hopkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-260).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (27.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
DeAndre Hopkins has notched far more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.8%) vs. wideouts this year (64.8%).
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.54 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.