DeAndre Hopkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Hopkins

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Hopkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -168 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (27.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).
DeAndre Hopkins has put up a colossal 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.