DeAndre Carter Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

DeAndre Carter

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

DeAndre Carter Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+393/-828).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -794 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -828.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeAndre Carter has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).
DeAndre Carter's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 61.1% to 77.7%.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have incorporated play action on 28.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.