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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) this year.

Dawson Knox has been on the field for 61.2% of his offense's snaps this year, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Dawson Knox's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.8% to 70.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a big 7.5-point favorite this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 54.9 per game on average).

The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.4%) versus TEs this year (71.4%).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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