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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-136/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Bills to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.

In this contest, Dawson Knox is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets.

The predictive model expects Dawson Knox to be a more important option in his offense's air attack in this week's contest (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.5% in games he has played).

This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded a whopping 81.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are predicted by the projections to run only 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 53.9 per game on average).

Dawson Knox's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 1.2 adjusted catches compared to 2.3 last year.

Dawson Knox checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching just 66.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 13th percentile.

When it comes to defensive tackles rushing the passer, Kansas City's group of DTs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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